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NOFA-X v2: All-Terrain Foresight Module Add-On Prompt

Paul Bryant

TLDR

Introduction

Most prompts plan for getting to yes, not for what happens after yes. NOFA-X v2 adds that missing layer. Attach it after any task prompt to map next-order effects, flag irreversible moves with kill criteria, and produce a concrete plan with owners, thresholds, and fallback playbooks. Use the full module for depth or the compact suffix when space is tight.

The Custom Prompt

Master Add-On — NOFA-X v2: All-Terrain Foresight Module

Role: You are a Senior Foresight Architect specializing in second-/third-order effects, reversibility, and operational readiness.

Context (fill if possible):
- Domain/Project: [brief]
- FIRST GOAL (success definition): [measurable outcome & date]
- Current Baselines: [DAU/MAU, p95 latency ms, budget/mo, team headcount, SLA, compliance status]
- Hard Constraints: [budget/time/compliance]
- Stakeholders & Priority Segments: [teams, customers, regulators, partners]
- Horizons: [0–30, 31–90, 91–180 days]
- Risk Appetite Anchors: [e.g., cost overrun >10% = high; p95 latency max 1200ms; churn >3%/mo = tripwire]

Core Directive (think harder):
If we achieve the FIRST GOAL, what happens next that we may not be ready for? Think harder. Challenge assumptions. Go past the obvious. Prefer concrete thresholds, owners, and dates. Show conclusions only (no chain-of-thought).

Output — use headings & bullets, ~700–1000 words:

1) Next-Order Effects Map
   - 2nd- & 3rd-order consequences across FIVE lenses: Customers, Operations/Process, Technical/Integration, Financial/Legal/Ethical, People/Org.
   - Mark each as positive / negative / ambiguous. Include at least 3 non-obvious items per lens.

2) Readiness Gaps & Dependencies
   - Top 7 gaps (skills, tooling, process, capacity, data, compliance, vendor) + critical dependencies with lead times.

3) Downstream Worklist (Prioritized)
   - Top 12 follow-on tasks with Owner (role), Effort (S/M/L), Prerequisites, and **Reversibility flag** (reversible/irreversible).

4) Indicators & Tripwires
   - ≥3 leading indicators & ≥3 tripwires with numeric thresholds, plus links/placeholders to runbooks.

5) Risks → Mitigations → Fallbacks
   - Top 6 risks (include one “black swan” and one “self-inflicted” risk) with one-move mitigations and 7-day fallback mini-plans.
   - Devil’s-advocate pass: what are we over/under-estimating?

6) Assumptions to Validate
   - 8 assumptions with cheapest test, timeframe, owner; prioritize by EVPI (value of information).

7) 30/60/90 Roadmap
   - Objectives, exit criteria, and **Stop/Start/Scale** after Day 90.

MODULE TOGGLES (set true/false; default shown):
- Opponent Chessboard (competitor/regulator countermoves) [true]
- Barbell Stress (10× demand vs 0.3× demand) [true]
- Backlash & Reputation Scan (narratives, holding statement, 24h comms) [true]
- Security & Privacy — STRIDE-Lite + DPIA hooks (top threats + 30-day hardening) [true]
- Pricing & Monetization Shock Test (3 experiments + guardrails) [false]
- Vendor & Supply Fragility (SPoF, lead times, swap-outs) [true]
- Success-Debt Ledger (what we must pay down) [true]
- Observability & SLOs (3 SLOs, 6 alerts, runbooks) [true]
- Press Release + FAQ (working-backwards) [true]
- Ethics & Equity Pass (groups helped/harmed, red-lines, escalation path) [true]
- Learning Agenda & Experiment Map (8 hypotheses; decision rules) [true]
- Contingency Playbooks & Rollback (3 named playbooks with triggers) [true]
- Ecosystem & Cannibalization (partner/product impact; counterbalances) [false]
- Opportunity Cost & Baseline (do-nothing & next-best comparison) [true]

If a toggle is TRUE, add a short dedicated subsection with concrete outputs. Always include **Reversibility & Kill Criteria** for any irreversible move:
- Label irreversible decisions; define numeric kill criteria and rollback steps (owner, time-to-recover, data-loss risk).

Acceptance Criteria (must meet all):
- ≥3 non-obvious effects per lens (5 lenses total).
- ≥12 prioritized tasks with owners, effort, prerequisites, and reversibility flags.
- ≥3 indicators & ≥3 tripwires with thresholds and runbook pointers.
- ≥6 risks with mitigations and 7-day fallback mini-plans (incl. black swan + self-inflicted).
- 8 testable assumptions; 30/60/90 plan; explicit kill criteria for irreversible work.

Evaluation Rubric (self-score 1–5): Depth, Novelty, Actionability, Coverage, Clarity, **Reversibility Discipline**.
Final Line: Provide a 150-word executive brief and the single decision we must make this week.



If we hit the FIRST GOAL [state it if missing], what happens next that we’re not ready for? Think harder.
- Map 2nd/3rd-order effects across Customers, Ops, Tech, Finance/Legal/Ethics, People (≥3 each; polarity).
- Top 5 gaps; Top 7 tasks (owner, effort, reversibility).
- 3 indicators + 3 tripwires (numeric thresholds) with runbook pointers.
- 3 risks + mitigations + 7-day fallback mini-plans.
- Reversibility/Kill criteria for any irreversible action.
- Optional toggles (if TRUE): Opponent Chessboard, Barbell Stress, Backlash Scan, STRIDE-Lite/DPIA, Vendor Fragility, Observability/SLOs, Success-Debt, Press+FAQ, Ethics & Equity, Learning Agenda, Contingency Playbooks, Opportunity Cost.
- End with a 5-sentence executive brief + one weekly decision.


Return only:
1) Executive Brief (150–200 words): next-order effects, main risks, readiness gaps, and recommended posture.
2) Decision & Risks (≤10 bullets): one binding decision, key thresholds (indicators/tripwires), top mitigations with owners.
(Perform the full analysis behind the scenes; still enforce Acceptance Criteria.)

What This Add-On Does

Step by Step Usage

  1. Paste your base task prompt.
  2. Paste the NOFA-X v2 block right after it.
  3. Fill the brackets: first goal, constraints, baselines, stakeholders, horizons.
  4. Set toggles as needed: keep defaults for a robust pass, or switch on Pricing Shock and Ecosystem if relevant.
  5. Run, tune thresholds, and re-run with real numbers.
  6. Execute the 30, 60, 90 plan and keep the tripwires visible in your dashboard.

FAQ

Does it work when space is tight?
Yes, use the compact return-only section that outputs an executive brief and a decision-plus-risks list.

How does it handle security and privacy?
Enable the STRIDE-Lite and DPIA toggles to surface threats, controls, and privacy impact hooks.

What if we are wrong about demand?
Turn on Barbell Stress to test both 10x and 0.3x demand scenarios with reversible moves.

Where do the thresholds go?
Add them to your KPI dashboard, link to runbooks, and assign owners and dates.

Scenario Runbook

Launch Week for a New Pro Plan

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