uncertainty estimation Archives

Alerts, logs, and tool observations pass through an evidence contract before scoped assessment; confidence estimates are checked separately against observed outcomes.

AI Evidence Contracts: Qualify Data and Calibrate Confidence

Published September 14, 2026 by Paul Bryant

Build an evidence contract that keeps observations current, scoped, and traceable. Learn why confidence calibration and evidence qualification answer different questions, and how to use both in an operational workflow.

Possible causes pass evidence checks and a decision gate; observations and reviewed feedback may support a separately scoped memory or model change.

Bayesian Inference and Predictive Processing: Why AI Needs Evidence

Published September 7, 2026 by Paul Bryant

Use Bayesian inference and predictive processing to clarify the relationship between prediction and evidence. Apply the distinction to enterprise AI without treating confidence as verification or permission.

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